Opec and its allies appear to have accomplished their mission of bringing global oil stocks to desired levels, the International Energy Agency said on Friday, signalling that the markets could become too tight if supply remains restrained.
国际能源署(International Energy Agency)上礼拜五呈现，欧佩克及其盟友好像已经完成了将全球石油仓库中所容商品提高至预期水平得使命，这表明倘若供应若受到控制，市场可能变得过于紧张。
IEA signals oil market could become too tight if supply remains restrained
The IEA, which coordinates the energy policies of industrialised nations, said global stocks in developed countries could fall to their five-year average - a metric used by Opec to measure the success of output cuts - as early as May.
"It is not for us to declare on behalf of the Vienna agreement countries that it is 'mission accomplished', but if our outlook is accurate, it certainly looks very much like it," the IEA said in its monthly report.
Vienna-based Opec has reduced production in tandem with Russia and other allies since January 2017 to prop up global oil prICEs, which soared above $70 per barrel this month, giving a new boost to booming US shale oil output.
But as oil production collapsed in Opec member Venezuela and still faces hiccups in countries such as Libya and Angola, the oil exporter group is producing below its targets, meaning the world needs to use stocks to meet rising demand.
On Thursday, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly report that oil stocks in the developed world were only 43 million barrels above the latest five-year average. The Paris-based IEA put the figure at just 30 million barrels as of the end of February.
The IEA said that even though non-Opec output was set to soar by 1.8 million barrels per day this year on higher US production, it was not enough to meet global demand, expected to rise by 1.5 million bpd or around 1.5 per cent.
With production declines in Venezuela and Africa, Opec was producing 31.83 million bpd in March, below the call on its crude for the rest of the year at 32.5 million bpd.
The output-limiting pact runs until the end of the year and Opec meets in June to decide its next course of action. Saudi Arabia, has said it would like the pact to be extended into 2019.
Opec Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo told Reuters on Thursday Opec and its allies were poised to extend the pact into 2019 even as a global glut of crude was set to evaporate by September.
"Opec is within rapid reach of its first announced goals and will have to come up with a new metric for the June meeting if it wants the agreement to last into the second half of the year," said Olivier Jakob from Petromatrix consultancy.